The euphoria in equity markets following the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut is raising the risk of a market bubble, making bonds and gold attractive hedges against potential recession or renewed inflation, according to Bank of America Corp's Michael Hartnett.
Hartnett, who has been bearish on stocks and expressed a preference for bonds in 2024, warned that current stock market valuations are pricing in Fed easing and anticipating an 18% earnings growth for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025. While this outlook forces investors to chase the rally, Hartnett cautioned that bubble risks are resurfacing and advised investors to buy the dip in bonds and gold.
Additionally, Hartnett recommended international stocks and commodities as potential plays on a soft economic landing, noting that international equities are currently cheaper and beginning to outperform US peers. Commodities also serve as a hedge against inflation.
Global stocks rallied after the Fed's 50-basis-point rate cut, pushing the S&P 500 back to record highs, while the Nasdaq 100 saw its best day in over a month. However, on Friday, US stock futures edged lower, and Europe’s benchmark index fell 0.7%, indicating some caution.
Hartnett has previously warned about the risk of a bubble in tech stocks, particularly amid the growing AI frenzy.
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