Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may lose its outright majority in the lower house of Parliament for the first time since 2009, according to forecasts by major Japanese media outlets. While the LDP is expected to retain control of the chamber with the help of its coalition partner Komeito, predictions suggest the party will fall short of the 233 seats needed for a majority in the Oct 27 election.
The Mainichi newspaper forecast that the LDP could win between 203 and 250 seats, while Komeito is expected to secure 24 to 29 seats, down from its current 32. The Yomiuri newspaper predicted the coalition would still achieve a majority, despite around 120 LDP candidates being involved in close races.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who took over as LDP leader last month, has set the goal of achieving a majority with Komeito’s support. Public support for the LDP has dwindled following scandals involving party members allegedly profiting from funds raised from supporters. In response, Ishiba barred 12 implicated lawmakers from representing the party in the upcoming election.
If the LDP loses its outright majority, Ishiba is likely to remain as party leader but will need to give greater consideration to Komeito’s policy preferences. Komeito, rooted in a lay Buddhist organization, may push for more restraint in areas such as defense spending, despite Ishiba’s strong advocacy for increased military investment and forming an Asia-Pacific NATO.
Public support for Ishiba's administration is around 40%, a recovery from the 20% levels seen under his predecessor, Fumio Kishida. However, recent polls indicate that voter sentiment is still cautious as the election approaches.
Ishiba has pledged continuity with Kishida’s economic policies, focusing on ending deflation and raising wages, and has announced plans for a larger economic stimulus package to reduce the impact of high prices and support growth.
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