Australian dollar debt sales, which have surged to record levels this year, are now slowing as markets brace for potential volatility ahead of the U.S. election, according to bankers in Sydney. Over A$267.6 billion ($180.4 billion) has been raised in the debt market up to Oct. 8, the largest figure since Dealogic began tracking in 1995, as pandemic-era borrowing was refinanced into eager investor demand.
Financial institutions have issued A$95.6 billion in debt—also a record for the year-to-date—while mortgage-backed debt has reached A$61.4 billion. Corporate issuance, totaling A$26.4 billion, is up nearly 70% from the previous year.
However, the pace of debt issuance has recently slowed as capital markets hunker down ahead of an unusually close U.S. vote, signaling a possible broader pause in global capital markets activity. Simon Ward, head of debt capital markets for Australasia at Mizuho Securities, noted that recent volatility concerns tied to the U.S. election have led to a quieter period.
Despite the pause, Australian bond funds have attracted $4.8 billion in inflows this year, the largest rush in 14 years. Performance has also been solid, with the ICE BofA index of AAA Australian corporate debt up 3.8% this year, outpacing the 2.2% rise for U.S. AAA corporate debt.
Australia's big four banks continue to dominate the debt market, though the buoyant conditions have drawn in global corporations like Nestle and BP, as well as new issuers such as Registry Finance, which debuted long-maturity bonds.
Looking ahead, a slower fourth quarter is expected as much of the year's debt issuance has already been completed. However, the pause in Australia’s debt market may serve as a bellwether for broader global trends amid the upcoming U.S. election.
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