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Monday, July 6, 2009

Are We Bear or Are we Bull?

The recent three months rally has resulted in 30% increase of most of the stocks and the bourses around the world. This three months rally has also prompted many people on whether we are still in recession mode or we are out of the woods.

Based on the volume for the past few months, I can say that most of the retailers have started playing with stocks and the three months rally is like a very energetic bull that just keep on going up without pausing.

But when we really read at all the news, we can see that jobless rate in the US and European countries continue to spike, whereas Malaysia are seeing double digit contraction in her export data. So, with all the bad news, why are we seeing the market going up for three months without pause?

The recent rally was actually drive by the commodity. Look at the crude oil price chart? It has been going from USD40 to close to USD72 in just three months. Other commodity prices are also increasing bit by bit. This commodity rally is fueled by China, who plans to absorb commodity at low price.

As we can see, again, most of us were caught off guard as we were waiting for the market to crash, but before market can crash, a catalyst stir up the market, and then retailers beginning to buy stocks at 10% higher, then 20% higher and now trapped again at the peak. Again, my philosophy to buy on and off when the price is right and not wanting to see stocks at the rock bottom works out and most of the stocks I got are gaining about 20%-40%, even when we are starting to see market to plunge.

Question now again is are we bear or are we bull? If we thought that the market recovers, the market will react the other way while the same goes to if we think that the market are still bearish, we might suddenly see a spike and then we have to continue chasing the stocks, and then suddenly find ourselves trapped at the peak.

So, if it is possible, always buy within your means, which means buying the stocks with your cash. I will continue to reload my investment on and off on strong fundamentals stocks so that if the market really recovers, then I can harvest my fruit, while if the market drops, I can be confident that the stocks will not be shaken. Fundamentals can rarely goes wrong.

So, are we bear of are we bull? You make the call.