Singapore’s sovereign bonds look set to extend their outperformance into year-end, with Barclays plc expecting demand to strengthen as supply tightens and liquidity improves across the financial system.
Yields on the city-state’s 10-year government securities have already dropped about 100 basis points this year — the biggest decline in emerging Asia. Barclays strategist Audrey Ong said net supply could turn flat or even negative by December, supporting further yield compression. The bank forecasts the benchmark 10-year yield to fall to 1.60% by year-end, from around 1.85% currently.
Investor appetite for Singapore debt has been rising as global funds rotate away from US assets and seek higher-quality alternatives. The island nation’s AAA rating and resilient bond performance have boosted its status as a regional haven.
Liquidity dynamics are adding to the appeal. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is on track to deliver the lowest net T-bill supply since 2019, with about S$23 billion issued so far this year. Meanwhile, the domestic loan-to-deposit ratio remains near its lowest level on record, keeping interbank borrowing costs subdued and freeing up funds for sovereign debt purchases.
Seasonal trends also favour Singapore bonds. Over the past eight years, 10-year yields have fallen an average 4.3 basis points in November, partly mirroring declines in US Treasuries, given Singapore’s lack of a traditional interest-rate policy anchor.
Further support may come from the corporate market. Citigroup strategist Gordon Goh noted that the slower expansion of outstanding Singapore-dollar corporate bonds will reduce competition for investor capital and bolster demand for sovereign notes through the rest of 2025.
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