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Monday, January 18, 2016

IRAN adds to oversupply in oil

It is difficult to see oil recovering in the near term despite the investment in Phillips66 by Warren Buffett.

The oversupply doesn't seem to deter anyone from going into oil business. With the economic sanctions lifted, Iran is ready to get back into oil business and Bloomberg reported chief analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney saying by phone, “There is ongoing negative pressure on oil prices from oversupply."

"Iran is not new, but we’ve arrived now at the point where sanctions have been removed and it’s going to be a key focus for the markets over coming weeks. The question is how much supply can come online in the short-term.”

The Persian Gulf nation will only be able to increase oil production by 100,000 barrels a day, or 3.7 percent, a month after sanctions are lifted and by 400,000 in six months, according to the median estimate of 12 analysts and economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Iran is the fifth biggest OPEC producer.

Saudi Oil Minister Al-Naimi declined to comment Sunday when asked how the removal of economic sanctions against Iran might affect prices. The kingdom is the world’s biggest crude exporter, pumping 10.25 million barrels a day in December, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Hedge funds last week increased bearish oil wagers to a record as global equities fell and sanctions on Iran were poised to be lifted. Speculators’ short position in WTI rose 15 percent in the period ended Jan. 12, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. It’s the highest in records dating back to 2006. Net-long positions fell to the lowest in more than five years.

“Iran’s additional crude shipments have the potential to further depress prices, perhaps to as low as $25 a barrel,” Gordon Kwan, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc., said by e-mail Sunday.

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