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Thursday, January 7, 2016

CHAOTIC 29 MINUTES in China



China's market just made a record....and that's a CHAOTIC 29 Minutes in China. The market open at 9.30am local time and in 29 minutes, it was all over. 

The share prices went into a free fall as soon as local exchange opened. One manager of $46 million in Shanghai liquidated all his holdings. Other investors, including a top-performing hedge fund, tried in vain to cash out as circuit breakers brought trading to an abrupt halt. 29 minutes, the market is close. And let's not forget...it's only the 7th January 2015...the 4th day the market opens in 2016...and it's already the second time that the circuit breakers were triggered. 

It was a chaotic day for the China's market. Even after the market were close, a lot of phone calls were made. Flood of angry phone calls from clients on the market plunge and the circuit breaker. It was abrupt on Monday...it was even worse today.

Imagine if you're going to watch a football game....the game was supposed to last for 90 minutes but by the 10th minute, the referee blew the whistle and said it's game over. Manchester United lost! What the hell! (You get what I mean with this description right?)

29 minutes and it's game over!
The bigger problem lies with the question why.

It's not like the growth story is over for China. True, the yuan is weakening and the economy is decelerating to its slowest annual pace since 1990, but that’s been known for some time. The currency is actually holding up well versus just about everything but the dollar, and analysts are predicting a 6.5 percent economic expansion this year.

It can't be that bad right? Could it?

Well, it's difficult to predict a volatile market such as this but the main concern is really on the MARKET INTERVENTION BY THE CHINESE AUTHORITIES.

With the policy makers' extreme measure to prop up shares last year, no one knows what will Beijing be doing this time around.

Criticism is intensifying over market-wide circuit breakers, launched at the start of this year, that kick in when there’s a 5 percent swing in the CSI 300. That halts trading for 15 minutes, with exchanges shutting for the rest of the day if the index moves by 7 percent, as it did on Monday and Thursday.

The circuit breaker is a WILD CARD, and something that investors in China are obviously still trying to get used to....while the idea is manage volatility, it also caused a lot of selling pressure as people are afraid to get stuck by the time the circuit breaker is triggered. And when it did, it stop...there's not even any chance for a rebound.

Definitely a day that will go into the history book as one of the shortest period of time that the market was opened.

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